Brad Wilton's Rating System
The No. 1 mistake gamblers make?
They worry too much about win/loss percentages.
Gamblers often just don't understand that the win/loss percentage is 100% inconsequential because every play - at least in my case and for all the handicappers here at this site - is rated for money-management purposes.
If you ever come across a handicapper who refuses to rate his plays, my advice is to RUN because more than likely he's a con man.
Personally, I use a weighted scale - ranging from 10 dimes to 100 dimes - to rate my releases.
This rating system not only defines my success in terms of net profit at the end of the day, week, month or season, but it also gives you an idea of how strong each release is and how you should play it.
Two simple things to remember:
1) In terms of ratings, a 50 dime play is obviously twice as strong
as a 25 dime play; five times stronger than a 10 dime release.
2) Base the size of your wagers on the percentage of your total
bankroll for a given day.
To explain that second rule a bit further, let's say you've got $100 to play with on a Monday night and I've got a 40 dime play on the football game's side plus a 10 dime release on the game's total. That's 50 dimes of action on the table versus $100 to invest. That means you've got $2 per dime to play ($100 divided by 50 dimes). So, you would wager $80 on my side selection and $20 on the total.
Play by my rules and you never get in over your head.
Who is Brad Wilton?
My family moved from Macon, Georgia to Las Vegas when I was seven.
You want to talk about future shock?
Growing up here as a kid, you went to school to learn about reading, writing and arithmetic, but on the streets you learned about gambling. Everyone was seemingly doing it. Ponies. Poker, Sports. Friends and family alike. And unlike other places in this country, there wasn't the do-gooders telling you how bad it was.
No surprise, I guess you would say, that I was playing poker before puberty hit. Betting pro and college sports was just a natural progression. And I've been doing it LONG before I lost my hair. Trust me on that one!
If you ask me, being here in Vegas in the gambling mecca of the world, watching the city grow and going along for the gambling ride of your life, is key to making a living betting on spots. The clock didn't strike midnight for my 21st birthday before I was making a beeline to the old Stardust to place my first bet "legally." It was run down even then, but what a place. Such a shame that it's nothing but a memory and empty lot with half-started buildings now.
At the Stardust I got an education because that's where the veteran gamblers here in Vegas always hung out. Remember, sportsbooks back in those days weren't the glamour palaces they are now. These were guys that were so much older than me, but I learned my lessons well by listening to what they said about spotting bad numbers and the factors that influence prices on games.
Unlike those old-timers, I had the advantage of using the wonderful worldwide web. The Internet gave me access to every team in the country, allowing me to read about them and watch many of their games online. It's not unusual for me to spend a good six hours a day scouring team websites and reading about teams in local newspapers. But that research is often the difference between making money and losing it.
You can't make that commitment on a daily basis. I understand that. But that's what my job is and that's how I make money for you and me both.