Units, Dollars, Stars, gold plays, platinum plays, double-wager living locks, blah, blah, blah.
Who the F&%K cares about all that crap?
I just want to get you my plays in an easily understood system. So, here it goes:
The plays are rated from 10 dimes to 100 dimes.
A 50 dime play is twice as strong as a 25 dime play.
Your wager for a 50 dime play should be twice as much as a 25 dime play.
Pretty damn simple, right?
The rating scale is simply a unit of measure (i.e. worth) so you know how strong a play is to ME when I release it compared to others either previous or in the future.
How much you play is up to you. That's where bankroll allocation comes into the equation.
Let's say today it's an NFL Sunday and you have $100 to spend. That's it; not a penny more. And that $100 is the most you would bet on a game. Period. Now, if I have a 50 dime play, you're just betting $50 - not $100 - because my play isn't a max wager so your bet shouldn't be either.
Say I win on Sunday and Monday night your bankroll is now sitting at $150 and I come strong with a 100 dime max wager. Do you take all $150 and bet it? F&%K NO. Your max wager is $100. That's what you're playing because should I lose after the vig you're still walking away with $40 over the two days.
Will your max wager change eventually? It could. But only if I build your bankroll. You bet more when that bankroll grows; you bet less when it shrinks. It's all about money-management. And I will "manage" it if you follow my rating system.
Who is Tony Weston?
I am a gambler, just like you.
But unlike you, I'm a handicapper, too.
That means my job is doing the research on teams, personnel and situations all designed to produces a profit over the long haul.
It's not a 9-to-5 job. Never has been. It's 7 days a week, 365 days a year, but no complaints from me because I love it. Been doing it since I was 23-years old and wouldn't do anything else.
It's more than just getting online and studying. Being here in Vegas you've got to keep your ear to the ground, talk to other gamblers and get tips along the way. You need to be able to spot bad lines and bad situations and be ready to pounce on those obvious linemakers' errors. Trust me, oddsmakers make mistakes daily, some big, some small, and they're waiting to be exploited and that's what I do best.
Do I win all the time? Hell no. And anyone who says they do is a F&%King liar. This is a business about turning a profit over the long haul and that's what I'm best at, making money over the course of the month, the season, the year.
New Orleans (-5) at TAMPA BAY
The same way I wasn't convinced the New York Jets victory over the Dallas Cowboys meant much, or the Los Angeles Chargers demolition of the Green Bay Packers was indicative of either team, I don't think the New Orleans Saints are as bad as we saw on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons.
I do, however, believe the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are as inconsistent as they've been all season, and will be the punching bag for a frustrated Saints team that was stymied by the Falcons.
Remember, Atlanta made a change with its defensive personnel prior to Sunday's game, so the Falcons played with a bit more vigor after their bye week. I warned Jack Brayman when he told me he loved the Saints, especially since every damn suicide pool out there had them as well. That was a trap if I ever saw one.
I got trapped laying too many with the Buccaneers, and won't get caught this week.
New Orleans will be out to avenge the loss, and it'll begin with correcting mistakes it can control. For instance, the Saints committed 12 penalties for 90 yards on Sunday, and half of those infractions produced Falcons first downs while another four extended drives on third or fourth down.
The Saints will also do a better job of protecting Drew Brees. Prior to the game the Falcons had registered an NFL low seven sacks. They put Brees on his back six times and kept the Saints out of the end zone.
Just because the Bucs beat Arizona, keep in mind quarterback Kyler Murray threw for 324 yards and three TDs to Christian Kirk, including a 15-yard scoring strike that put the Cardinals up by four midway through the fourth quarter.
Tampa Bay has the 24th ranked defense overall, and absolute worst passing defesne, allowing 298.9 yards per game through the air.
Huge bounce back for the Saints, who win this by double digits.
Based on 1♦ to 5♦ Rating