My complimentary winner is the Kansas City Chiefs over the Buffalo Bills.
There’s only been two quarterbacks that have beaten Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs in his eight-year career. Josh Allen isn't one of them, and he won’t be joining that club on tonight. Mahomes has proven to be a completely different beast in the playoffs against everyone - especially against the Bills.
Mahomes has a 1-4 career record against Buffalo during the regular season with 260 pass yards per game and a 10/7 TD/INT ratio, but when he faces the Bills in the playoffs he is 3-0 with 306 pass yards per game and an 8/0 TD/INT ratio to go along with a 126.6 passer rating.
Mahomes threw two interceptions in the first meeting with the Bills, but he hasn’t thrown an interception since. Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception in six straight postseason games and the Chiefs are 8-0 both straight up and against the spread in playoff games in which they are either underdogs or favored by 3 points or less.
The Chiefs have covered in each of Mahomes’ last four starts and have won three of their last five games by two possessions or more despite not having any such games until Week 15.
While the Chiefs are clearly peaking at the right time, it might be fair to say that the Bills peaked too early. From Weeks 7 through 15, the Bills scored 30+ points in eight straight games and won seven of them. In Buffalo’s five games since, they’ve been held under 30 points four times and Allen has been held to zero touchdown passes in two of his last three games against lesser defenses than KC’s.
And I want you to honestly answer this question when I ask you if the Baltimore Ravens should've won last week's playoff game against the Bills. Sorry, but using the same formula - mixed with luck and favorable calls - isn't going to work at Arrowhead Stadium.
And for those who think the refs favor the Chiefs, chew on these numbers: the Chiefs have had 20 fewer penalty yards per game than opponent in last 11 playoff games. And, with roughing the passer calls per 100 pass attempts, we have Josh Allen (.936) getting more than Patrick Mahomes (.636). And, 31.6% of Allen's roughing calls came on third down while 29% of Mahomes' roughing calls were on 3rd down.
So, who's getting the calls?
Momentum favors the Chiefs here and I think they win by 5-7 points.