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SATURDAY'S FREE PICKS

FYI - I had an unexpected second round of oral surgery earlier this week and subsequently won't be returning to do Video Reports until early this week. In the interim, you'll find my free picks in this space.

FREE PICK # 1 - Utah State (-14') at WYOMING

Do you get the feeling Utah State likes being the bully after being picked on for so many years?

Since opening the season with a seven-point loss at Michigan State, the Aggies have averaged 55.6 points and 505.6 yards while reeling off five straight wins. And their defense, which was pretty much non-existent in recent seasons, has allowed only 21 points and 348.2 yards in that stretch.

When you think of offensive juggernauts, Utah State isn't at the top of your list, yet the Aggies enter this game with the nation's No. 2 scoring offense (50.2 ppg) and that's the biggest reason they're a perfect 6-0 ATS.

Wyoming, on the other hand, can't find the end zone with a roadmap. The Cowboys, who average only 17.5 points and 282 yards a game, are ranked 126th among 129 FBS teams in offense this year as redshirt freshman quarterback Tyler Vander Wall (51 percent completions, 168 ypg, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 19 sacks) has struggled to replace Josh Allen. 

No such issues at quarterback for Utah State, however, as Jordan Love is hitting at a 67-percent clip with 14 touchdowns and 1,557 yards through six games. This is a big revenge game for him personally as he was benched in last season's 28-23 loss at home - a game where Wyoming rallied by scoring the game's final 12 points - after throwing a season-high three interceptions. 

Wyoming is 1-5 (0-6 ATS) since its season-opening win at New Mexico State with that only victory by three at home versus Wofford. Not exactly inspiring, right? The Cowboys are fresh off road losses at Fresno State, 27-3, and Hawaii, 17-13, and in that game, the Rainbows were playing a freshman quarterback making his first start with Cole McDonald was sidelined with a knee injury. The Pokes' last home game resulted in a 34-14 loss to Boise State and a final around that margin wouldn't be a surprise today.

 
FREE PICK # 2 - Central Florida (-21') at EAST CAROLINA

UCF barely extended the nation's longest winning streak to 19 in a row by rallying from 16 down to win at Memphis last Saturday, 31-30. Something tells me the Knights will have an easier time today at East Carolina as the Pirates are coming off losses at home to Houston, 42-20, and the prior week at Temple, 49-6, games where their defense allowed a total of 876 yards.

Central Florida beat ECU 63-21 at home last season as a 35 1/2-point chalk, taking a 42-14 lead at halftime and never looking back with quarterback McKenzie Milton completing 20-of-27 passes for 324 yards and two touchdowns in only three quarters of work.

The Pirates are making a big change at quarterback in this game, giving freshman Holton Ahlers his first start after he directed two late scoring drives in the Houston loss last Saturday. Lot of pressure on the youngster, who set all kinds of records at Conley High School in Greenville and whose father is the public address announcer at East Carolina's Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium  Ahlers was recruited by a lot of big programs with even Alabama making a late push for his services, but he stayed local and this is a tough spot to make his debut against a Central Florida team coming off its worst defensive effort of the season.

Interesting way to look at this game: UCF is laying a big number, but it's actually a cheap price because if the Knights had played well at Memphis they would have easily been a 4-TD chalk in this game with a freshman starting for the Pirates.

 


 

11 of 16 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
239-185-14 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
11-6
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past 7 years combined
 

 
123-88-9 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past seven seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

129-99-3 Record

 


Payment Types

Top-Rated 15 Dime Winner # 22 of 33

Penn State at Indiana

123-88-9 with NFL 15 Dimers
over the past seven seasons
- including the Broncos on Thursday -
and this play is just as strong

---------- BONUS MLB ACTION ------------

Raise the Bar 
20 Dime Release

Los Angeles at Milwaukee

Raise the Bar 20 Dimer # 32 of 54

Winning Day # 65 of 106
Buy Now Buy Now $88
Top-Rated 15 Dime Winner # 22 of 33 on Penn State-Indiana as I go for Winning Day # 65 of 105 overall. 

I'm on a 122-88-9 roll with Top-Rated 15 Dimers in the NFL the past seven seasons following Thursday's winner on the Broncos over Arizona, and this play is just as strong.

I've also got a bonus MLB release, my Raise the Bar 20 Dime release on Game 7 of the NLCS with Los Angeles at Milwaukee. 

It is my Raise the Bar 20 Dimer # 32 of 54 since 13 Fridays ago and it's just the 72nd such play I've had over the past three MLB seasons combined.

As for the comp plays I'm on a 903-853-37 roll the past 1056 days.

Discount packages

365 PLAYS
Buy Now Buy Now $1,995
365 PLAYS - EVERY SPORT

Best Package Offered

$199 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase



How Do My New Packages Work?

In September of 2018, I decided to change my strategy for releasing plays. Since I created these sites some 15+ years ago, I've had a play every single day. But I changed the way I'm doing things because I feel it will only increase my winning percentage while boosting the value of your package over the short- and long-term.

Previously you purchased a 7, 30, 60 or 100-day package.

Now, however, you purchase 7 plays, 30 plays, 60 plays or 100 plays.

So let me rundown some quick bullet points for you:
  1. One thing that doesn't change: the only game you get is the game I'm playing.
  2. On those days where a card is weak and I just "like" a game, but don't really love it, I'm taking a pass and not issuing a release. In the past I would have released a lower-rated 5 dime play perhaps. Although I certainly won more than my share of them, I believe I can make even more money by avoiding games I like and instead focusing just on those that I love.
  3. So, what happens when I take a pass - which, fyi, will rarely, if ever, be on a Saturday or Sunday or any huge weeknight in hoops - if you have a package? Let me give you an example below:
  4. In the old style packages, you were buying a 30-day package, which meant you got 30 plays in 30 days. Now, however, you buy 30 plays which might be fulfilled over 35 days, or 38 days. You get ALL 30 plays, but it takes more than 30 days because I'm going to be even more selective while trying to boost my winning percentage.
  5. Bottom line: From this point forward when you buy a package from me you're buying 7 Plays, 30 Plays, 60 Plays or 100 Plays - not days - because I want to make every single play count and by being even more selective I believe I can win more with higher-rated selections along the way.
  6. One last thing: you don't have to do anything. The packages will be automatically adjusted whenever I take my first pass and the time will be reflected when you login.
  7. FYI - All the instant rebates still apply as listed below.
100 PLAYS
Buy Now Buy Now $999

100 PLAYS - ALL SPORTS

 

Nothing held back!

 

$149 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

 

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase

60 PLAYS
Buy Now Buy Now $779
60 PLAYS - ALL SPORTS

$100 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
30 PLAYS
Buy Now Buy Now $479
30 PLAYS - ALL SPORTS

Nothing held back!

$50 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
7 PLAYS
Buy Now Buy Now $189

7 PLAYS - EVERY SPORT

UPGRADE DISCOUNTS
 
If you're coming off a 7-day or longer package,
an Instant Rebate is Available on Qualifying Purchases
of 30 Days or Longer
 
 
INSTANT REBATE AMOUNTS
 
Upgrade to a 30-Day Package - Get a $50 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a 60-Day Package - Get a $100 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a 100-Day Package - Get a $149 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a Super Saver Package - Get a $159 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a 365-Day Package - Get a $199 Rebate
 

 

Two Payment Option Available
on any Package of 100 Days or More


1 DAY of ACTION
Buy Now Buy Now $109
7 DAYS of ACTION
Buy Now Buy Now $449
30 DAYS of ACTION
Buy Now Buy Now $999

 Every Play - Every Sport

From All Pick Nation Experts


NOTE:

(Any "Guarantee" applying to Guaranteed Plays and Resulting

Free Service is NOT included)


Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Matt Rivers,

Dom Chambers (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays everyday


Trace Adams' Pay After You Win Plays

(which are NEVER Best Bets) are not included


Upgrade From One Package To Another at Anytime

Instant Rebates Available Upon Upgrades!

Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

Free Pick Video
1 Day of Action $109
7 Days $449
30 Days $999

 Every Play - Every Sport

From All Pick Nation Experts


NOTE:

(Any "Guarantee" applying to Guaranteed Plays and Resulting

Free Service is NOT included)


Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Matt Rivers,

Dom Chambers (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays everyday


Trace Adams' Pay After You Win Plays

(which are NEVER Best Bets) are not included


Upgrade From One Package To Another at Anytime

Instant Rebates Available Upon Upgrades!

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