Premium Picks

RECENT RESULTS

Sept. 28 1500♦ Twins WON

Sept. 27 800♦ Tigers WON

Sept. 26 500♦ Cowboys WON

Sept. 25 1000♦ Chiefs loss

Sept. 24 600♦ San Diego State WON

Sept. 23 500♦ Under Boise St.-UTEP WON


Pro Football Championship Winner # 14 of 17

600♦ Title Game
Winner # 4 in a Row

Cincinnati-Los Angeles stays Under by 5 1/2

MATCHING my 600♦ Title Game Winner # 3 in a Row in 2021
Tampa Bay (+3) 31-9 OUTRIGHT in Kansas City

MATCHING my 600♦ Title Game Moneyline Lock in 2020,
Kansas City (-125) 31-20 over San Francisco

MATCHING my 600♦ Title Game Total Lock in 2019
Rams-Patriots stayed Under by 40 Points

Here is what I had to say about the Bengals-Rams TOTAL in 56:

The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams will stay under the posted number.

My only wish is I could've released this play two weeks ago, when the lines came out. I have tickets on the Under since it was 50, and have been betting it down to the current number. I still think it has value, as both defenses are the real stars for the offensive units we're talking about.

When you think about the comebacks the Rams have had to make, the tight games they've had to play, and the games they've escaped this season, it's been because of that defense.

The Rams, who have stayed under in 28 of 38 when installed as the favorite dating back, are going to bring pressure onto young Joe Burrow, there's no denying that. He is crafty enough to make things happen, but he'll need the first half to structure properly and engage his offense for the second half.

Los Angeles, which has stayed low in 6 of 8 on turf, will also be under pressure from the Bengals' ferocious front line, and you'll likely see Matthew Stafford defer to his rushing game early on. It wouldn't surprise me to see both teams' first score be a field goal (hint for a prop) and the first quarter to stay low, too (another hint for another prop).

Cincinnati, which has stayed low in seven consecutive playoff games, after frustrating the heck out of the Las Vegas Raiders, stifling the Tennessee Titans, and dominating the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs. While people are picking apart those playoff wins, they fail to mention they play football for 60 minutes for a reason.

Cincinnati, which has stayed under in four straight, has held the opposition to 21 or less in seven of its last 11 games. And the Bengals, who are on an under run of 5-1 when catching points, ranked 17th in allowing 22.1 points per game. Sitting just above them in 16th? The Rams, who allowed 21.9 ppg.

This one is about the overshadowed, not-being-talked-about defensive units that will keep this one under.


PRO FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP RUN SINCE 2006

Documented 14-3 Roll with TOP-RATED releases in the BIG GAME

SIDES 5-1 ... TOTALS 8-2 ... TEASER 1-0

Blank Checks (1-0) ... 3000♦ (1-0) ... 2000♦ (0-3)
1000♦ (4-0) ... 600♦ (5-0) ... 500♦ (2-0) ... 400♦ (1-0)
  • 2006 ... WIN: Blank Check Steelers-Seahawks Under 47
  • 2007 ... WIN3000♦ Bears-Colts Under 47
  • 2008 ... WIN1000♦ Giants +12' vs. Patriots
  • 2009 ... WIN1000♦ Cardinals +6' vs. Steelers
  • 2010 ... WIN600♦ Saints-Colts Under 56'
  • 2011 ... LOSS2000♦ Packers-Steelers Under 45
  • 2012 ... WIN1000♦ Giants-Patriots Under 53'
  • 2013 ... WIN400♦ Ravens-49ers Over 48
  • 2014 ... LOSS2000♦ Broncos-Seahawks Under 47'
  • 2015 ... WIN500♦ Teaser Seahawks and Under vs. Patriots
  • 2016 ... WIN500♦ Broncos-Panthers Under 44
  • 2017 ... WIN1000♦ Patriots -3 vs. Falcons
  • 2018 ... LOSS2000♦ Patriots -4' vs. Eagles
  • 2019 ... WIN600♦ Patriots-Rams Under 55'
  • 2020 ... WIN600♦ Chiefs Moneyline -125 vs. 49ers
  • 2021 ... WIN600♦ Buccaneers +3 vs. Chiefs
  • 2022 ... WIN: 600♦ Bengals-Rams Under 48'
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Chris Jordan's Rating System

 

Everyone should be on the same page for each new campaign and how to approach each season.

 

You first must understand the Kelly Criterion, sometimes referred to as the Kelly formula; it's a blueprint I like to use to maximize the long-term growth rate of our bankroll, using repeated gambles of the variety of ratings I give out.

 

That criterion says an aggressive gambler should wager a set percentage of his bankroll, pertaining to the advantage (or rating system in this case) he feels he has over the game itself.

 

For those of you who play blackjack when visiting casinos, you may do the same thing in determining there is a one percent advantage over the dealer, and wager 1 percent of the total bankroll.

 

The key thing to remember is determining the percentage your using, and the maximum you'd be willing to risk on the top rating you will find here, which is the 1,000♦ Power Play.


On a daily basis you will find my plays ranging from from 100♦ and 1,000♦, but well within percentages you can effectively spread your wagers. When you do see the rating system on plays upgraded to a higher level, I will always talk about managing the bankroll accordingly.

 

Remember, a 1,000♦ play does not indicate a specific amount for everyone in general, it means if you're absolute biggest play you're willing to make is a nickel - that is your gauge with this rating system.

 

You need only divide accordingly from your absolute maximum amount into whatever the rating is, based on 1,000♦ being the highest rating.

Overall, you will find that I like to keep it consistent day-to-day so you know exactly when I'm stepping out on a big play.

 

Please follow these ratings accordingly.

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

 

The occasional 2,000♦, 3,000♦ or BLANK CHECK releases are games I feel are extreme value for the price, or in Kelly Criterion theory - is more of an advantage over the book.

 

I have always personally played a Blank Check game FIVE TIMES THE SIZE of my regular maximum bet. So, for example, on day I am releasing a Blank Check Winner, one 1,000♦ play and three 200♦ picks, a player with a maximum wager of $500 would wager the following:

 

Blank Check play - $2,500

 

1,000♦ Plays - $500

 

200♦ Plays - $100 each

 

With the vig, you would have a total of $3,630 in action.

 

Hope this helps in regards to money management!


Complimentary Pro Football Winner

Los Angeles at HOUSTON (+6')

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

My free NFL winner for Sunday is the Houston Texans over the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Bolts are easily the better team here, but they also just lost at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and we're talking about a Texans team that has been competitve through three games, covering all three. Dating back, they're also on a 5-0 ATS roll during AFC battles.

Whether or not Justin Herbert is able to play, or will play, let me tell you that coach Brandon Staley didn't think wisely by playing his franchise quarterback once the Jags put the game out of reach. I don't care that Herbert said he wanted to play, rib injuries are no joke.

And now he goes on the road to face a Texans team that has won the last two meetings and will be hungry to get its first win before Las Vegas gets its first.

And in the Chargers' plethora of injuries to three essential postions - left tackle Rashawn Slater, wide receiver Keenan Allen and edge rusher Joey Bosa - and things are a mess with this team right now.

I'm much more confident in a healthy Davis Mills, who completed 21 of 27 attempts for a career-high 77.8% for 254 yards and two touchdowns vs. 0 interceptions for 130.6 rating in his last year's 41-29 win over the Bolts.

Mills has 1,916 passing yards (273.7 per game) with 14 TDs against an interception for a 111.3 rating in seven career home starts. He also has 300 or more passing yards in four of his past six home starts, and will aim for his eighth straight at home with a 90+ rating when he hosts the injury-plagued Chargers on Sunday.

Take the points and be active in buying the half point if for some reason the number gets back in the range of +6 and +7.

1♦ TEXANS
Based on 1♦ to 5♦