RECENT RESULTS
Saturday, 3/22
30 Dime - Drake - Loss
$10 bettors up $11,585 in football
the past 2 seasons
- college and pro combined -
35-15 with All-In 100 Dime Max Wager Football Releases
since my site debut
NFL Opening Night 100 Dime All-In
Max Wager Winner on the Chiefs over Baltimore (9/5)
- This is what I told you -
I closed the NFL season in February with a 100 dime winner on the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, and I will open the new NFL season with a 100 dime winner on the Chiefs at home against the Ravens.
Full disclosure, two weeks before my Super Bowl winner on K.C., I did lose with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game in their 17-10 loss to the same Chiefs they will be facing tonight.
It was my ONLY playoff loss last year. It was my ONLY playoff loss in my last 10 postseason releases!
I will NOT make the same mistake a second time! To be blunt, I don't think Lamar Jackson is ready to step up on this opening night and pull off the upset win. There are too many negatives before both Jackson and his Ravens, and I will spell them out to you right now.
Fact, Jackson is 20-1 his last 21 games started against teams from the NFC. The primary reason for the mark is the element of surprise. When you don't see a QB like Jackson regularly, you are not prepared for what he can do to your defense, and things tend to go downhill fast.
Kansas City and its defensive coordinator tends to see Jackson and his offense regularly - this will be their 6th meeting in the Jackson-Mahomes era and KC has won 4 of the 5 so far - and the wins have come largely because of the schemes DC Steve Spagnuolo throws at Jackson.
I don't expect anything to change tonight, as Baltimore is restocking its offensive line with 3 newcomers, and unfortunately, its offensive line coach just passed away unexpectedly last week. The Ravens are also missing some key lynchpins from their defense from a season ago and all in all the task on the road tonight looks a little too big to conquer.
Last year on the opening Thursday night the Chiefs played host to Detroit and the Lions won outright ruining the Super Bowl triumph celebration before the game. No chance Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce allow this to happen again this opening Thursday night.
Lay the field goal with the home team. Kansas City is the play tonight.
75 Dime Winner on Michigan
in the National Championship Game 2 Years Ago
- This is what I told you -
I am hitching my wagon tonight to the Michigan Wolverines to take this year's college football championship game both straight up and against the spread in this battle of unbeaten teams.
This is not a knock at all on Washington and their fantastic quarterback Michael Penix Jr., after all, the Huskies have won 21 straight games dating back to last year and they have gone 5-0 both straight up and against the spread the last 5 times they have been installed as the underdog, and that includes a 3-0 mark this season.
You are also familiar with the saying "defense travels" I am guessing, and that is the main crux of my analysis on the Wolverines for tonight's game at NRG Stadium.
Penix may rate the edge over Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy, but Michigan owns the #1 scoring defense in the nation, and after settling in in their semifinal win over Alabama, the Wolverines' defense was indeed the difference against the Tide as they were able to generate 6 sacks on Jalen Milroe, and also able to snuff out the 4th and goal overtime quarterback draw from the 3-yard line that ended the contest.
The Michigan defense will be the difference tonight and don't discount the Michigan run offense also doing damage and limiting Washington's possessions.
The fact of the matter is the Washington defense is 54th in the country in scoring defense and 97th in total defense. Keeping that in mind, if the Huskies were able to pull off the upset tonight, it would be the first time since 2010 when Auburn and Cam Newton won the national championship with a defense that ranked outside of the Top 50 in both of those major statistical categories.
It has been a magical ride for this year's Huskies team, but it just feels to me like this is Jim Harbaugh's time. The Wolverines may have gotten into hot water with their elaborate signal-stealing scheme, but they have used that "us against the world" mentality to their advantage.
I was really impressed with the way the Wolverines did not wilt against Alabama and Nick Saban, and no disrespect to Kalen DeBoer and Washington, but if you can topple 'Bama, you can topple the Huskies.
Go with Michigan tonight for the win and cover.
40 Dime Winner on Ohio State
in the National Championship Game
- This is what I told you -
They have won 13 games in a row, and they have covered 11 straight wins, including ALL 3 in this year's new playoff format, but the clock will strike midnight tonight on Marcus Freeman and his banged-up Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.
It has been a tremendous run for Our Lady, but the reality is unless the Irish play their best game - and that might not even be enough! - they will not be close in tonight's Championship Game versus Ohio State.
The Buckeyes have posted 3 straight playoff wins and 3 straight playoff covers. Their top receiver Jeremiah Smith was limited to 1 catch for 3 yards in Ohio State's semifinal win over Texas, and yet the Buckeyes still found a way to beat the Longhorns by 2 full touchdowns.
Ryan Day's team also torched Oregon by a 41-21 score, and won its opening-round playoff game, 42-17 over the Tennessee Volunteers! 3 straight double-digit wins, so do not for one minute think that laying the -8 1/2 points is a little too much for you to part with in tonight's game indoors in Atlanta.
The Irish have been able to create turnovers, and create big-play opportunities on special teams - kickoff return for a TD against Georgia, and timely field goals against Penn State - and I don't see them drinking from that fountain again tonight against the buttoned-up Bucks.
The Ohio State defense will give the Notre Dame makeshift offensive line issues tonight and see to it that quarterback Riley Leonard does not get comfortable in the pocket. The Ohio State offense led by Will Howard - 73.9% playoff completion percentage, 919 passing yards, 6 touchdowns, and only 2 picks - will see to it that the vaunted Irish secondary will have to be on their toes all night long. I keep thinking about how the ND secondary struggled against USC and Louisville this season, and I see them struggling against the best passing team they will face to date.
It has been an impressive run for Notre Dame, but tonight they are simply in over their heads. I see the Buckeyes winning this game by at least 12 points if not more.
Lay it with THE Ohio State University tonight at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
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Rick Torino's Rating System
Pretty simple really. Like many others on this site I like the "dime" rating system. It's easy to understand and it puts plays in perspective.The high point of the scale is a 100-dime release. Obviously they don't come along every single day. My goal (and the goal of any self-respective handicapper) is to make money over the long haul, consistently churning out a profit. It's all about management from a financial perspective.
When I'm releasing 50- or 75-dime plays they aren't to be ignored. Instead, their strength has to be considered relative to what type of roll I'm on at that moment and the size of my bankroll heading into the contest. Never lose sight of the fact that it's all perspective when it comes to rating plays.
Who is Rick Torino?
Sports and gambling; they go hand-in-hand.I played them all growing up. I covered them all as a journalist. I've bet them all as a gambler.
I bring a unique perspective to being a handicapper: I was a College & Pro Football Editor at a national sports wire service for nearly 10 years. I coordinated all of our draft coverage for a decade, but my responsibilities didn't end when the season did. I also used my sources and contacts to compile the injury reports (for all sports) that sportsbooks in Vegas and bookmakers everywhere relied on in the days before leagues and teams were so forthcoming with such info.
This is the first time I've made my plays available anywhere. And this is the ONLY place you'll find them. Just one play a day.